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CFP projections: Oklahoma, Big Ten in prime playoff position

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CFP projections: Oklahoma, Big Ten in prime playoff position

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Oklahoma‘s win against Texas last week boosted the Sooners to the top of the College Football Playoff heap, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

After beating Texas, the Sooners have a 71% chance to reach the CFP, highest of any team by a wide margin, according to the predictor. Only Ohio State has greater than a 50% chance (52%).

But don’t count out Texas, which still has a chance, or the Big Ten, which has a 91% chance to land a team in the CFP.

Two of the Pac-12’s best, Oregon and Washington, square off Saturday in a game that can have CFP ramifications.

Let’s take a deeper dive into these statistics heading into Week 7.

Oklahoma is OK

Just how good is Oklahoma at this point?

• The Sooners have a 23% chance to win the national championship, according to the playoff predictor. This is a significant disagreement with the betting market, which makes Oklahoma 14-1 (7%) to win the national title.

• The Sooners have at least an 89% chance to win each of their remaining games, according to FPI. And they have a 41% chance to win out through their conference championship game.

• Oklahoma currently ranks No. 1 in strength of record, with a 17% chance than an average CFP contender could have achieved the 6-0 record Oklahoma has, given the schedule it has faced.

Can Texas rebound?

Absolutely. Texas has a 32% chance to reach the playoff. It has a 22% chance to win out, in which case it would be a one-loss conference champion and would be a virtual shoo-in for the playoff.

Big Ten, Big 12 lead playoff race

Though Oklahoma may be the top team to reach the playoff, the Big Ten has a better chance to put at least one team in than the Big 12, 91% to 89%. Every other Power 5 conference is still in it: SEC (72%), Pac-12 (69%) and ACC (37%).

The Big Ten also has the highest chance to put multiple teams in the playoff, 18% to the Big 12’s 14%. The SEC’s is at 5%, the Pac-12 3% and the ACC under 1%.

Oregon-Washington leverage

Oregon at Washington this week is the fourth-most impactful remaining scheduled game. Here are the playoff chances for each team given the result, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Oregon with a win: 56%
Oregon with a loss: 20%
Washington with a win: 39%
Washington with a loss: 9%

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