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CFP projections: Oklahoma, Big Ten in prime playoff position

CFP projections: Oklahoma, Big Ten in prime playoff position


Oklahoma‘s win against Texas last week boosted the Sooners to the top of the College Football Playoff heap, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

After beating Texas, the Sooners have a 71% chance to reach the CFP, highest of any team by a wide margin, according to the predictor. Only Ohio State has greater than a 50% chance (52%).

But don’t count out Texas, which still has a chance, or the Big Ten, which has a 91% chance to land a team in the CFP.

Two of the Pac-12’s best, Oregon and Washington, square off Saturday in a game that can have CFP ramifications.

Let’s take a deeper dive into these statistics heading into Week 7.

Oklahoma is OK

Just how good is Oklahoma at this point?

• The Sooners have a 23% chance to win the national championship, according to the playoff predictor. This is a significant disagreement with the betting market, which makes Oklahoma 14-1 (7%) to win the national title.

• The Sooners have at least an 89% chance to win each of their remaining games, according to FPI. And they have a 41% chance to win out through their conference championship game.

• Oklahoma currently ranks No. 1 in strength of record, with a 17% chance than an average CFP contender could have achieved the 6-0 record Oklahoma has, given the schedule it has faced.

Can Texas rebound?

Absolutely. Texas has a 32% chance to reach the playoff. It has a 22% chance to win out, in which case it would be a one-loss conference champion and would be a virtual shoo-in for the playoff.

Big Ten, Big 12 lead playoff race

Though Oklahoma may be the top team to reach the playoff, the Big Ten has a better chance to put at least one team in than the Big 12, 91% to 89%. Every other Power 5 conference is still in it: SEC (72%), Pac-12 (69%) and ACC (37%).

The Big Ten also has the highest chance to put multiple teams in the playoff, 18% to the Big 12’s 14%. The SEC’s is at 5%, the Pac-12 3% and the ACC under 1%.

Oregon-Washington leverage

Oregon at Washington this week is the fourth-most impactful remaining scheduled game. Here are the playoff chances for each team given the result, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Oregon with a win: 56%
Oregon with a loss: 20%
Washington with a win: 39%
Washington with a loss: 9%


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